There have been so many sociological shifts from COVID. Among the most fascinating to me is the reversal of the centuries old rural to urban migration. Prior to COVID, more than 80% of the world’s population lived in metropolitan areas. While the reversal has only just begun, it will be interesting to see the residential preferences of people who can remote work and don’t need to crowd into urban areas.
First, let’s put RTO to bed. “Return-to-office died in ‘23,” said Nick Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University and work-from-home expert. Yes, large companies like Meta and Zoom made headlines by ordering workers back to the office. But, Bloom said, just as many other companies were quietly reducing office attendance to cut costs. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/12/21/remote-work-from-home-trends-2024/71991203007/
In addition to the fact that it’s cheaper for companies not to pay for office space, heating and cooling, Internet and electricity, remote workers report being happier and workers report they are more interested in remote work than in a raise. https://stackoverflow.blog/2023/11/27/are-remote-workers-more-productive-that-s-the-wrong-question/
The demand pull for remote work is going to put increased pressure on companies looking for talent. Where corporations can, they will be pushed to convert positions to remote work eligible over the coming decade. Some 40% of the current jobs can be done from home. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/23/post-poll-remote-work-hybrid-future/ The COVID surge followed by the slower, but continuing trend for remote positions, will free people up to move away from the metropolitan areas.
Nearly 83 percent of the U.S. population lived in an urban area in 2020, and that number was expected to reach nearly 90 percent by 2050, https://www.statista.com/topics/7313/metropolitan-areas-in-the-us/#:~:text=Nearly%2083%20percent%20of%20the,nearly%2090%20percent%20by%202050.
But wait.
The data showed more residents moved out of the Golden State than into it in 2023, with 58% of California moves being outbound in 2023. California saw its first-ever population decline in 2020 when the state imposed rigid lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Housing prices are falling in cities like Phoenix, Pittsburg, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, New York City, Austin, Texas and Chicago where people are moving out toward areas with cheaper costs of living. https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/real-estate/cities-where-home-prices-are-falling-most-this-year/
“Connecticut is gaining a huge bonus from the remote work and the pandemic flight from New York City,” says Dowell Myers, a professor and director of the Population Dynamics Research Group at the University of Southern California.
Some people leaving concentrated areas are moving to traditional retirement states like Arizona and Florida for the year round summer experience. But many are moving to states that aren’t known for their metropolitan centers including North and South Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Oklahoma and Idaho.
But the service industry still exists. Even though computer programmers, project managers and accountants can do their jobs from anywhere, people working in retail and service industries still have to go to brick and mortar locations. However, the services will have to follow the migrant herds leaving the cities and going to the outback of Montana. So even those jobs will be exiting the populated centers, albeit slowly.
How will all these changes impact the social fabric of our country?
People in cities often ignore each other, but people in the country greet each other. This sociological change may be amplified by the sitting-is-the-new-smoking reality. Remote working office etiquette will change. One possibility is that meetings can be labeled screen visibility required meaning the participants will be best served by sitting at a screen. But more abstract theoretical discussion meetings will be labeled “walk-friendly.” Since remote workers on discussion meetings can and will walk around their neighborhood, we’ll see a renaissance of the local community. We’ll have an increased ability to recognize our neighbors.
The homeschooling trend that started with COVID will continue to increase both because parents are in the house remote working so they can provide security, such as calling 911 if there were an emergency, and because a new industry is growing up around the new demand for homeschooling. Online live or webapp courses will allow elementary, middle and high school students to study what they want, when they want and as long as they can show sufficient progress that parents can focus on remote work, kids will get more autonomy, mastery and purpose.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/interactive/2023/homeschooling-growth-data-by-district/
School will become a series of day camps and activities like Singapore Math classes, Mathnasium and Coding camps, focused on interactive and entertaining activities as well as educational activities because the students have a say in what they are being taught and how and they can vote with their feet.
The dictatorship of being involuntarily committed to a particular school district and classroom based on a zip code will be replaced with choice. Consumer choice has been a trend in the U.S. starting in the 1920s as documented in Jason Voiovich’s Booze, Babe and the Little Black Dress, but elementary education has so far managed to escape the conversion of choice. Not any more. The rise of homeschooling and unschooling is doing more than private schools or charter schools ever could.
Backyard vegetable gardens, raising chickens and mason bees have all received a surge as a result of the remote work move. People who are at home and who are migrating to more remote locations with more space have the option of growing their own food. And they are both because it tastes good and because gardening is a great hobby. Homesteading YouTubers are making bank on this new trend with websites like “3 Mississippi” about a family that left San Diego to move to Houston … I mean Houston, MS and 30+ acre farm.
A decade from now, our lives will be simply more enjoyable, more friendly, more pleasant completely independent of any change or increase in income of material wealth.
Do you think I’m overly optimistic?
35-Year Public Affairs & IT Professional 